Rationale for considering the future of Shelton Lower School
Consultation closed at 5pm on Monday, 23 July 2018
The school has not been full for a number of years and only five children are due to start in the September year R intake out of a total admission number of 15.
Taking account of these pupils, and pupils whose parents have taken places in other schools, the number of pupils on roll in September will be 39, which is 52 per cent of Shelton lower school’s capacity. In addition, there are currently 11 children attending the pre-school nursery but no new applicants for September 2018, and the head teacher is currently reviewing its viability.
Despite the governing body making a significant effort over the years to increase pupil numbers through publicity, providing a pre-school nursery and federating with another school, and undertaken marketing activity, there has been a steady decline in pupil numbers and this decline is forecast to continue.
At the point of producing this document it is predicted that by September 2018 there will be only 39 pupils on roll. The projected pupil numbers for the school are provided below. These projections take account of the planned housing growth in the local area. The numbers show a continued decline with the school expected to be operating at under a half of capacity (41 per cent) by 2020 and around a third by 2021.
| Year group | October 2018 | October 2019 | October 2020 | October 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reception | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Year 1 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 4 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 9 |
| Total | 39 | 34 | 31 | 26 |
| Percentage of capacity | 52% | 45% | 41% | 35% |
Schools are allocated funding based on the number of pupils they have. There is a point at which schools cannot continue because they have too few pupils and therefore inadequate funding to keep operating. Shelton Lower School has gone into a budget deficit position and this looks set to worsen.
The table below shows the forecast financial position for the school based on the predicted pupil numbers. This information was accurate at the point of producing this document. Given the projected decline in pupil numbers, the deficit cannot be repaid and is projected to increase.
| Type | 31 March 2018 | 31 March 2019 | 31 March 2020 | 31 March 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income | £338,712 | £285,680 | £268,078 | £252,702 |
| Expenditure | £348,680 | £303,822 | £301,939 | £292,554 |
| In-year revenue deficit | (£9,968) | (£18,142) | (£33,861) | (£39,852 |
| Deficit brought forward | (£8,786) | (£18,754) | (£36,896) | (£70,757 |
| Cumulative revenue deficit | (£18,754) | (£36,896) | (£70,757) | (£110,609 |
It will be increasingly difficult with reducing budget year on year for the school to sustain the broad and balanced curriculum required by the national curriculum, which is a legal requirement.
The governors alerted the council to the deteriorating financial situation in February 2018. The council has been providing financial support to the school and exploring possible options. At present there seems to be no prospect of recovery and therefore we must consider the future of the school as its financial viability is in question.
Therefore, in the best educational interests of pupils, the council has started the statutory process to consider the future of the school and possible closure.